Ethereum continues to trade within a firmly bearish market structure despite showing signs of stabilization around a major support zone. While buyers have managed to defend the recent lows, both the daily and 4-hour charts suggest that any recovery attempt still faces significant overhead resistance. Meanwhile, exchange price data indicates that institutional demand through Coinbase remains weak, reinforcing the cautious outlook.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

The daily chart shows ETH extending its broader downtrend inside a well-defined descending channel. Price remains below the major moving averages, with the 100-day and 200-day averages both sloping lower overhead.

Following the sharp breakdown below the $1.85K support and a decisive retest and rejection, ETH is trading range-bound around the $1.5K support zone, which currently spans roughly $1.45K to $1.55K. This area has once again attracted buying interest and prevented further downside, making it the most important support for the buyers in the near term.

On the upside, the first notable resistance sits around $1.85K, which previously acted as support before turning into resistance after the breakdown. Above that, sellers are likely to defend the $2K to $2.2K supply zone, which also aligns with the declining moving averages and the upper boundary of the descending channel.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Ethereum has finally broken above the descending trendline that had capped price action throughout last week’s decline. This is the first meaningful improvement in its short-term market structure. The price is now retracing for a potential retest, and if buyers successfully defend, it will increase the credibility of an upward move.

Despite this constructive development, ETH continues to trade below the key horizontal resistance at $1.75K, which remains the primary obstacle before a larger recovery can unfold. A decisive break above this supply zone could pave the way for a move toward the $1.85K resistance, where sellers are expected to become active once again.

Momentum has also improved following the breakout, with the RSI recovering toward the neutral 50 level after previously emerging from oversold conditions. While this suggests selling pressure has eased, buyers still need to reclaim the nearby resistance cluster to fully confirm a short-term bullish reversal.

As long as Ethereum holds above the broken trendline and the $1.5K support region, the probability of an extended relief rally remains elevated. However, losing these support levels would invalidate the breakout and shift momentum back in favor of the sellers.

Sentiment Analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index continues to paint a cautious picture for Ethereum. The metric has remained predominantly below the neutral line and recently dropped deeper into negative territory, indicating that ETH is trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to other exchanges.

This generally reflects weaker buying pressure from U.S.-based institutional and large-scale investors, a group that has historically played an important role during sustained recoveries. Although occasional rebounds in the premium have appeared throughout the past several months, they have failed to develop into persistent positive readings.

As long as the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, institutional demand appears subdued, limiting the probability of a strong bullish reversal. A sustained recovery in the premium back above zero would be an early indication that larger buyers are returning to the market and could provide additional confirmation for any technical breakout.

Источник: CryptoPotato