Bitcoin (BTC) nearly topped $62,000 on Thursday after US payrolls grew by just 57,000 in June, roughly half of what economists expected. The miss revived Federal Reserve rate cut hopes and forced bearish traders to exit crowded short positions.

The rebound arrived days after Bitcoin closed its worst month since June 2022, a 20.5% drop. Whether the bounce extends to $70,000 now hinges on Fed policy, ETF flows, and whale activity on exchanges.

Weak Jobs Data Explains Why Bitcoin Jumped towards $62,000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 57,000 new jobs for June, far below the 113,000 consensus. According to the report, April and May payrolls were also revised down by a combined 74,000, while labor force participation slid from 61.8% to 61.5%.

Consequently, traders cut the odds of further Fed rate hikes and rotated back into risk assets. The data also landed a day after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks had eased, remarks that helped Bitcoin reclaim the $60,000 level on Wednesday.

Derivatives amplified the move. Roughly $450 million in crypto short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, CoinGlass data shows, as bears rushed to cover.

Bitcoin now trades near $61,465, up 1.18% over 24 hours, but even so, BTC sits 51% below its October 2025 record of $126,080 and down 44% over the past year.

ETF Outflows and Whale Deposits Cloud the Road to $70,000

Institutional demand has not confirmed the bounce. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $294 million in net outflows on Wednesday, market data shows, even as prices climbed. The redemptions extended June’s record $4.5 billion exit, the products’ worst month on record.

Sentiment is thawing nonetheless. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index improved from Extreme Fear to Fear.

Similarly, Tiger Research said it has turned more constructive, arguing the market is likely in the final stage of its bear cycle.

In contrast, however, CryptoQuant flagged fresh warning signs on exchanges.

“Bitcoin is testing $60K support, and exchange deposits are flashing warning signs. BTC inflows jumped above 50K/day, ETH inflows spiked above 1.25M, and altcoin deposits hit a two-month high. Whales appear to be leading the move. Incoming volatility,” the analysts wrote in a post.

The firm added that the average deposit size doubled from 1 BTC to 2 BTC, a pattern driven by whales rather than retail. Its warning follows deepening capitulation signals tracked across on-chain data this week.

Historically, similar deposit spikes preceded sharp moves, including June’s slide when Bitcoin fell to $58,000. A failure to hold $60,000 could expose the realized price near $53,000, which CryptoQuant calls the key on-chain valuation floor.

A sustained push to $70,000 likely requires ETF flows to turn positive and July’s FOMC meeting to validate rate cut bets.

Until then, reclaiming the 20-day EMA remains the first test for bulls, while $60,000 stays the line the whole market is watching.

RSI Rebound Suggests Selling Pressure Is Fading

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 43.76, holding above its signal line at 35.59. The indicator bottomed near oversold territory in mid-June, and its recovery suggests bears are losing control.

A push above 50 would confirm the shift, especially if the broader market keeps climbing.

BTC faces a resistance cluster at $62,000, reinforced by the 20-day EMA at $62,148 and Parabolic SAR at $62,523. A daily close above it could send the price toward the 50-day EMA near $66,200, a 7.7% gain.

However, record ETF outflows may cap demand, even as long-term models point higher. Rejection here risks a retest of $58,115, and losing that floor would invalidate the recovery.

Источник: BeInCrypto