Meta stock has fallen about 10% in 2026, and the large investors who move the market are quietly selling the shares while possibly buying Google instead.

The reason comes down to money. Meta is spending record sums on artificial intelligence, yet unlike Google, it has no clear way to earn that money back.

Why Big Money Is Stepping Back

Meta Platforms (META) plans to spend between $125 billion and $145 billion in 2026, most of it on AI data centers. That bill sits at the center of the concern. The problem is the payback. Almost all of Meta’s revenue, about 98% of its $200.97 billion in 2025 sales, still comes from advertising.

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Unlike Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, Meta runs no cloud business to rent out its new computing power. As a result, the Meta AI capex has no obvious second income stream. That may be starting to change.

Bloomberg reported on July 1 that Meta is building a cloud service, internally called Meta Compute, to sell its spare AI capacity, though the plans are early and could shift.

JPMorgan made that case in April, cutting Meta to Neutral and lowering its target to $725 from $825. The bank warned the company could post negative free cash flow for the first time in years.

The Money Is Moving to Google

That caution now shows up in the flows. Chaikin Money Flow, a gauge of whether big money is buying or selling, reads -0.209 for Meta, a sign of steady selling. Google reads +0.177, a sign of buying.

Meta also trails in relative strength, which measures a stock against its peer group. Meta scores 95.8 and lags, while Google scores 123.0 and leads.

In short, investors appear to be swapping Meta for Google, as they are in the same AI group, the Hyperscalers. Google already runs a large, profitable cloud arm that turns its AI spending into revenue today.

Meta, by contrast, has only announced its plan to do the same. That gap between a working business and a promise is what the money is chasing.

Meta Sits in the Market’s Weakest Group

The wider backdrop looks fragile. Only 32% of AI-linked stocks trade above their 50-day average price, a level that points to a narrow, shaky rally. Meta’s own group looks the worst of all. None of the five major hyperscaler stocks trade above that average, the weakest reading of any AI category.

So Meta is not merely weak on its own. It is the laggard inside the market’s weakest corner.

Options and Analysts Split Before Earnings

Traders have begun to hedge. The put-call ratio, which compares bearish bets against bullish ones, rose to 0.58 from 0.37 on July 2, showing more buyers of protection. Calls still lead overall, so the shift reads as caution, not fear.

Wall Street, however, stays upbeat. As of July 2, Citi, Wells Fargo and Wolfe Research all kept Buy ratings, with targets ranging from $767 to $850, well above the current price near $585.

That gap sets up the next test. Meta reports second-quarter earnings on July 29, with analysts expecting roughly $60 billion in revenue.

For now, the two camps disagree. Big investors are selling and options traders are hedging, while analysts still say buy. The July 29 earnings report will show which side is reading Meta stock correctly.

Источник: BeInCrypto