A prediction market now gives the XRP price a 65% chance of falling below $1 before the end of August. The technical picture is leaning the same way.

The call comes from Polymarket, a platform where traders bet real money on outcomes. Its odds line up with a weakening chart, softening demand, and traders who are positioned for more downside.

XRP’s Chart Builds a Bearish Pattern on Fading Volume

The alarm started with a live betting market putting XRP below $1 this month. The daily chart gives that bet a reason to exist.

XRP has traced a head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish reversal shape with two lower peaks around a higher middle peak. The pattern sits on a descending neckline that slopes down as support.

Volume tells the rest of the story. Sell volume surged between Aug 3 and Aug 7 as sellers pressed the neckline hard. Yet, buyers managed to hold the line on Aug 7. However, the defense was not convincing. The bounce came on weaker buy volume, which leaves the support looking fragile.

A shaky pattern only matters if the money behind it agrees, so positioning comes next.

Whales and Retail Are Both Leaning Short

The people trading XRP are not signaling confidence. A whale-retail divergence gauge reads -6.3 and sits in its aligned zone. It compares how the biggest traders are positioned against retail.

That reading shows top traders are 96% more short than retail. In plain terms, professionals lean bearish, and retail appears to be drifting toward the same stance rather than holding above $1.

Spot demand echoes that caution. XRP spot outflows across all exchanges have shrunk from about $56 million on Aug 3 to $4.3 million for the week ending Aug 10. That’s a 92% drop in retail-specific buying optimism.

The netflow stays negative but the fading size suggests fresh buyers are not stepping in with force. That leaves the support breakdown risk firmly in play.

With sentiment and flows both bearish, the XRP price chart and its levels become the decider.

The XRP Price Levels That Decide the Next Move

The neckline sits near $1.02, and that level is not random. It lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, also at $1.02. That overlap makes $1.02 one of the strongest support zones on the chart. XRP trades near $1.03 at press time, just above that floor after surviving the August 7 test.

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A clean break of $1.02 would confirm the bearish pattern. The measured move points about 9% lower, toward roughly $0.92, a zone that sits below $1 and matches the outcome Polymarket is pricing. A deeper flush opens the 1.618 extension near $0.89.

The bearish read is not automatic. Head-and-shoulders setups can fail when the neckline holds on repeated tests, and a low-volume break often traps early sellers.

For strength to return, XRP needs to reclaim about $1.09. Only a move back above $1.16 would fully cancel the setup and hand control to buyers. This XRP price prediction for the month lays out that case. Until then, the XRP price stays pinned to its floor.

The $1.02 line separates XRP holding the $1 level from the slide toward $0.92 that Polymarket is betting on.

Source: BeInCrypto