Two of Wall Street’s biggest banks just gave opposite advice on the same artificial intelligence (AI) trade. JPMorgan says the recent dip in AI chip prices is a buying opportunity, while Morgan Stanley says it is time to move on.

The disagreement is about timing, not direction. A sharp pullback in chip shares has capped a huge 2026 run, and both banks still back the AI boom while splitting on where the next gains sit.

JPMorgan Says the AI Chip Dip is a Gift

JPMorgan told clients the recent selloff is a buying opportunity. The bank says demand for AI chips remains strong while supply stays tight. It does not expect meaningful new chip capacity to arrive until 2028.

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That shortage hands chipmakers real pricing power. So JPMorgan prefers chip stocks over the big cloud companies known as hyperscalers. The bank also expects global stocks to reach new highs in the second half of 2026.

Morgan Stanley Says the Leaders are Tiring

Michael Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, sees it differently. His team says the momentum behind chip stocks is fading after they led the entire rally. Chipmaker earnings estimates have also been raised so fast that they now sit at historic extremes.

Wilson’s main clue is a strange disconnect. Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are spending more than ever on AI, with capital budgets forecast at $805 billion in 2026 and $1.116 trillion in 2027. Yet their shares have continued to slip.

That gap, in his view, is a warning sign for chip stocks. He even compared the chip rally to silver’s sharp climb earlier in 2026, calling both liquidity-driven moves rather than lasting new trends.

Wilson expects major US benchmarks to stay under pressure in the near term.

“the momentum unwind is happening in some of the larger companies in the index,” Bloomberg reported, citing Wilson.

The numbers show the strain. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6% in one late-June week, while the recent chip selloff pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 7.9% over the same stretch. The index still sits well above its level last September.

Nvidia Earnings Could Settle the Debate

Investors are now waiting for the next big clue. A strong sales forecast from Micron last month failed to lift chip stocks. Many want to hear from Nvidia on the health of AI chip demand.

The bigger tell may be whether hyperscalers stick to their spending plans, especially amid fears that they are overspending on AI. Wilson holds a year-end target of 8,000 on the S&P 500, roughly 7% above current levels.

Why Crypto Investors are Watching

Chip stocks and crypto have moved closely together, both trading as high-beta bets on AI and easy money. When semiconductors fall hard, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have often caught the same cold.

The danger is that hyperscaler weakness turns into a broad tech selloff rather than a clean rotation, which could drag risk-on flows into crypto lower.

Steady hyperscaler spending on the next earnings calls would support Wilson’s rotation, while sudden cuts would spell trouble for chips and crypto alike.

Источник: BeInCrypto